Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
